Murdock[NJLP]
Rated PG-13
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 Posted: Fri, 23 Nov 2007 10:51:23 Post Subject: |
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I know....I don't know football...but I know math. I apply a little weight to the wins/losses, home/away, and recent performance. I also look at the scoring potential of the offense and the ability of the defense to prevent the scoring.
Basically...I use math....and then guess. 
| kimchiman wrote: | | That is exactly how the over/under works. The odds makers add 1/2 a point because they make money from people winning and losing bets, not from ties. 1/2 a point makes ties impossible. The other thing to consider is that some scores appear more often than others. Multiples of 7, +3 are most common. So better to pick a team to score 10 points than 11 points. The other thing to consider is the weather. Bad rain or snow will usually lower the total amount of scoring, as will a blowout where one team tries to run out the clock and rest it's best players. On the other hand, teams like New England try to run up the score. |
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